Saturday, July 07, 2007

Scientific Fraud – The Bands Play On

I hope Al Gore is having fun with his concerts because the truth about his lies is catching up. The boys over at Climate Audit find a paper by J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten Green analyzing the latest United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. The authors find no valid scientific forecasting behind the UN’s assertions and recommendations.

Scientific Forecasting: The forecasts in the Report were not the outcome of scientific procedures. In effect, they present the opinions of scientists transformed by mathematics and obscured by complex writing. … We have been unable to identify any scientific forecasts to support global warming. Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get colder.

The methodology used in the past few decades has shifted from surveys of experts’ opinions to the use of computer models. However, based on the explanations that we have seen, such models are, in effect, mathematical ways for the experts to express their opinions. To our knowledge, there is no empirical evidence to suggest that presenting opinions in mathematical terms rather than in words will contribute to forecast accuracy.

The entire globalwarmist movement is based on politically motivated scientific fraud. The essential take home messages: “unaided judgmental forecasts by experts have no value”, and there is a difference between a forecast by scientists and a scientific forecast. In other words, speculation using computer game programming is not science, and a “scientist” predicting Tom Watson wins U.S. Senior Open at Whistling Straits tomorrow does not make that prediction scientific.