Wednesday, November 15, 2006

Plausible Prediction Fiction

I hereby announce I am completely out of step with the mind of Kofi Annan. Indeed, I am proudly out of step with all individuals preaching people should live in fear of modern life. From the UN global warming conference in Nairobi:

UN Secretary General Kofi Annan: "This is not science fiction. These are plausible scenarios, based on clear and rigorous scientific modelling. A few diehard skeptics continue trying to sow doubt. They should be seen for what they are: out of step, out of arguments and out of time."

Let me be absolutely clear that “rigorous scientific modelling” is not science. Science is the testing of measured real world data against a hypothesis to determine true or false. Modeling is computer programming and computer programming is garbage in, garbage out. Computer modeling is playing games and special effects, and predictions derived from speculative computing are the very definition of science fiction.

David Ridenour: Plausible scenarios? Plausible scenarios? The entire world is being asked to take immediate, economically-devastating energy-use reductions for something that’s merely plausible?

It is also plausible the first world nations have done the best at easing poverty and protecting the environment. The world is afflicted with two political diseases. The acute threat is apocalyptic Islam armed with conventional, nuclear and economic weapons. The chronic threat is authoritarian socialism being advanced on many fronts including the demonization of modern western society.