The Democrats talk about both why the war in Iraq should not have happened and why they don’t believe the United States can succeed. Many of the party leadership are openly pessimistic that the successful elections will lead to a creation of a true democracy in the formerly authoritarian country. A degree of concern is warranted since history indicates that citizen elected leadership is no guarantee of efficient and fair governance. Arnold Kling at Tech Central Station writes a cautionary tale.
Iraq and the Corruption Trap: If I were to pick one indicator to track in order to predict success or failure in Iraq, it would be the following: The percentage of Iraqi government officials who abide by the law in their work.The anti-war left is enthralled with analogies to Vietnam, and there are valid concerns that those of us who believe this war is a just cause need to completely understand. Again from the Kling article:
The World Bank's Philip Keefer says that young democracies are fragile because governments are weak. Weak governments, unable to sustain broad-based power, turn to corruption in order to retain narrow-based power. However, corruption discredits the government, making broad-based power even less available. This makes the government even more dependent on corruption for survival. I call this the Corruption Trap.
Nonetheless, there is a valid parallel with Vietnam that is sobering. Ultimately, the United States depends on the local government for success.Good government arises from both citizen control and the rule of law. Establishing an anti-corruption ethic may well take longer than the suppression of violent extremists. Leaving a fledgling democracy to early greatly enhances the risk it will fail and the true peace that arises from justice within society will never bloom.
From 1963, when President Kennedy increased our involvement by sending advisers, to 1975, when we evacuated in disgrace, the attitude of most Vietnamese people toward the government of South Vietnam ranged from indifference to hatred. Had South Vietnam been able to escape the corruption trap during this period, my guess is that the Communists would have been defeated. On the other hand, with South Vietnam caught in the corruption trap, there was almost no way for the United States to achieve durable success.
My guess is that, in many cases, the fastest way to get something done in Iraq is to bribe an important local tribal leader. Americans, in a hurry and looking for "can-do" help, will be very tempted to play this game. However, the long-run consequences may be adverse. Bribing an official to get something done is like paying ransom to a kidnapper -- what looks like a good short-term fix is a disastrous long-term policy.
