Sunday, May 01, 2005

We Believe Bad Luck Goes Away

Lola and I first became aware of Cambridge Wisconsin native Matt Kenseth in 1997, when Robbie Reiser gave him a ride in the NASCAR Busch Series. Over the years we became fans while watching the “local boy makes good” story unfold. By 2003 Matt was NASCAR Champion. Last week I told Lola that Matt Kenseth is having the worst of season of any racecar driver ever. She doubts that but there is much discussion of fan frustration on the Matt Kenseth Message Board.
“What's wrong with Matt Kenseth? He's never been a good qualifier but he'd usually pass the field and finish in the top five or 10. For the last 15 races he hasn't qualified or finished well. He is staying consistent like always, but now it's consistently bad. Why is he suddenly struggling when most of the other Roush drivers are doing well?”
The theories include “chemistry” issues between, Matt, Robbie and owner Jack Roush, an inability to adapt to the new spoiler angle rules or the tire set up needed for this season’s version of Goodyear’s. Has Matt lost competitive drive? Does Robbie need to be replaced? Is the team resting on their laurels from past glories? Perhaps the race results this year are not determined by emotional or technical matters in the workshops. Auto racing at this highest level is extremely difficult and competitive, so the reason may be as simple as bad luck.

Going into today’s race at Talladega, only four drivers have lead more laps this year, and Matt’s poor finishes are the result of three blown tires while near the front, an engine failure which was a calculated risk that didn't work, a crash someone else started, and a penalty for speeding which may be a problem of trying to hard. With only 59 laps to go, Talladega served up the Big Crash which involved over half the cars on the track. As NASCAR put it “so many that two of the victims (Matt Kenseth, Casey Mears) went on to finish in the top 15.” Matt was again near the front of the race and managed to return and finish 11th. More importantly, he gained 5 positions in the points standings. The fan club faithful will be pleased and as one person stated:
"Lady luck doesnt play favorites. She will get bored with Matt and move onto JJ or Godron or Biffle, you'll see. It's all about the law of averages. I truly "believe" that!!!!"